MASS DISASTER

AFRICA: The next 15 years

If you are interested in Africa - it's many problems and it's future, you should read the following article which summarizes the results of a conference sponsored by the National Intelligence Council (of the United States). It is chock full of predictions and analysis running the spectrum from terrorism, corruption, democratic growth, economic trends, religious conflict, AIDS impact and more.

Remember that these are predictions. But they are based on a broad knowledge of how Africa is today and has been in the past, so it can serve as a consise and dispassionate window into the "big picture" for anyone seeking to familiarize themselves with the issues. The link goes to the Vanguard - a Nigerian site - so the title is about Nigeria, but the article itself deals with Africa as a whole.

Patterns of Conflict

Africa was the site of much of the military conflict in the world in the 1990s and there is no reason to believe that its share of world violence will change appreciably in the next 15 years. As in the past, most African conflicts will be internal, although the pattern of outsiders intervening in civil wars, either to help one of the protagonists or to protect themselves from the fallout of the conflict, will continue. African governments and rebels will continue to take advantage of the international market for basic weapons and, increasingly, logistics and higher-order military functions such as aerial reconnaissance.

... full text via vanguarddngr.com.

NORTH KOREA: Signs of impending famine

An increasing number (millions) of North Koreans are being sent to the countryside on weekends to work the farms, a sign that the threat of large scale famine is growing.

… The isolated North has depended on outside support to feed its 24 million people since the 1990s. An estimated 1 million North Koreans starved to death after the Stalinist regime's state farm system collapsed following decades of mismanagement and the loss of subsidies from Moscow.

… a combination of factors was making 2005 particularly at risk for famine. Although the harvest was not any worse than expected this year, it is combined with declining WFP food aid, government reforms that have driven up prices and cuts in government rations…

… Monitoring of food aid distributions is a major concern for donors, who fear food is being diverted to the North's military or political leaders.

… via the Guardian Unlimited

NIGER: Millions at risk in looming famine

Suffering from a one-two punch of last years weak rains and voracious locust hordes, millions in Niger could starve. Worse still is that funding for relief is almost non-existent

The price of cereals has soared while the market price for undernourished cattle and other livestock has plummeted. With empty granaries, many villagers in Niger have resorted to scavenging wild plants to survive, such as "anza", a very bitter fruit they only eat in times of severe shortage, Seydou Bacary, coordinator of the government's food crisis cell, told IRIN.

Hungry villagers even had been "scavenging ant-hills in hopes of finding grains of cereal left over by the insects," he said.

…via alertnet.org.

ABC of conflict and disasters

Anthony D Redmond pens an informative article detailing natural disasters from a medical/rescue standpoint. Read and be prepared.

Concerning the rescue timeline after earthquakes he writes...

Most successful rescues take place within the first 24 hours. Most lives are saved by the immediate actions of survivors. Local authorities implement the second phase, when a more coordinated response is established with local rescue teams joining the survivors. In the third phase more intensive and focused efforts are supplemented with extra help from other areas. The fourth and final phase involves the provision of specialist aid for rescuing people deeply entrapped.

... via British Medical Journal.com.

SUDAN :Women feed babies leaves

Growing fears of a repeat of the 1998 famine...

Last year's poor harvest has increased competition for food and water among clans in the Dinka tribe -- the largest in the south -- and between the Dinka and Nuer tribesmen, halting farming and leading to a big rise in cattle rustling.

Villagers say the raids have been particularly violent this year, clouding hopes of improved security in a region devastated in past years by fighting between the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the government.

Aid workers fear the violence could complicate efforts by the SPLM to form an effective southern government under the terms of their peace deal with Khartoum, placing an extra premium on delivering food aid to avert a worse crisis.

... via The China Post.