MASS DISASTER

AFRICA: The next 15 years

If you are interested in Africa - it's many problems and it's future, you should read the following article which summarizes the results of a conference sponsored by the National Intelligence Council (of the United States). It is chock full of predictions and analysis running the spectrum from terrorism, corruption, democratic growth, economic trends, religious conflict, AIDS impact and more.

Remember that these are predictions. But they are based on a broad knowledge of how Africa is today and has been in the past, so it can serve as a consise and dispassionate window into the "big picture" for anyone seeking to familiarize themselves with the issues. The link goes to the Vanguard - a Nigerian site - so the title is about Nigeria, but the article itself deals with Africa as a whole.

Patterns of Conflict

Africa was the site of much of the military conflict in the world in the 1990s and there is no reason to believe that its share of world violence will change appreciably in the next 15 years. As in the past, most African conflicts will be internal, although the pattern of outsiders intervening in civil wars, either to help one of the protagonists or to protect themselves from the fallout of the conflict, will continue. African governments and rebels will continue to take advantage of the international market for basic weapons and, increasingly, logistics and higher-order military functions such as aerial reconnaissance.

... full text via vanguarddngr.com.

CHINA: Government lied, geese died!

So it turns out that the Chinese "news agency" was lieing about the numbers. Why is this not surprising? Why should anyone believe their continues to denial of the rumors that as many as 121 people have died from the bird flu.

So they undereported a little, ten here ten there, no biggy. They reported 178 geese had been found dead but now admit that the number is in reality 1000. To me that seems like more than "undereporting". Nice to know that their state media have the best interests of their citizens in mind.

If a bird flu epidemic did break out amongst humans in China how many people would die before the Chinese government was forced to report it? And then when it did, how accurately would they present the numbers to the world. Something tells me that they would be inclined to falsify the human death toll more than the animal.

... full text here

CHINA: Government Moves to Quash Foot/Mouth and Avian Bird Flu Outbreaks

The Chinese state "news" agency is reporting that recent foot/mouth and bird flu outbreaks have been contained. As for the objectivity of the Chinese "agency" media... well, I'll let you size that one up for yourself.

Global health officials fear it could mutate into a lethal strain that could rival the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed between 20 million and 40 million people.

With the Chinese population hovering around 1.3 billion an epidemic that kills the middle number of 30 million would constitute roughly a death toll of 2% of the entire population. A scary number even for China.

... via China Daily.